Predicting the future

Responsible Nanotechnology: Predicting Changes by 2040

Some interesting predictions on what won't be around in 35 years:

1. John Browne: Auto Emissions {S}
   
   
2. Craig Mundie: Doctors' Offices {S}
3. Peter Schwartz: The War on Drugs
4. Esther Dyson: Anonymity {R}
5. Felipe Fernández-Armesto: The King of England {S}
6. Peter Singer: The Sanctity of Life
7. Jacques Attali: Monogamy
8. Minxin Pei: The Chinese Communist Party {R}
9. Julie L. Gerberding: Polio {S}
10. Lawrence Lessig : The Public Domain
11. Richard N. Haass: Sovereignty {S}
12. Harvey Cox: Religious Hierarchy {S}
13. Shintaro Ishihara: Japanese Passivity {R}
14. Christopher Hitchens: The Euro
15. Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Political Parties {S}
16. Lee Kuan Yew: Laissez-Faire Procreation {S}

Those answers followed by {S} are available to Foreign Policy subscribers only. Those marked with {R} require free registration. The rest can be accessed without registering or subscribing.

Here's my take

1. John Browne: Auto Emissions {S} - not at stretch here, this will probably come true, although we may have "emissions" that are quite different than what we now have.
   
   
2. Craig Mundie: Doctors' Offices {S} - I doubt this one, I think doctors are going to always want to be able to see the patient, we may go back to more house calls IMO
   
3. Peter Schwartz: The War on Drugs God I hope this one comes true, the "war" on drugs has been one of the biggest wastes of money ever
   
4. Esther Dyson: Anonymity {R} - probably true as well, you may be able to get some for limited applications, like browsing the internet or something.
   
5. Felipe Fernández-Armesto: The King of England {S} - who cares?
   
6. Peter Singer: The Sanctity of Life - This one is something of a cop-out on a prediction IMO, Singer takes the stance that the "hard-core" view of what life is will change, it will be the concept of an individual, not of life itself, that will have sanctity. He presumes that since we are re-defining when the life of an individual starts and ends (i.e. through the use of embryonic stem cells, and the Terry Schiavo case).
   
7. Jacques Attali: Monogamy highly doubtful, lots of people have been predicting this one for a long time. The only way this will change is through the evolution of the species, not going to happen in a generation.
   
8. Minxin Pei: The Chinese Communist Party {R} - another one I desperately hope is true, but I have my doubts
   
9. Julie L. Gerberding: Polio {S} - Entirely possible
   
10. Lawrence Lessig : The Public Domain doubt it, the concept of group ownership seems to be going up, not down, look at the GPL and it's derivatives
    
11. Richard N. Haass: Sovereignty {S} - no, the US will never give this up.
    
12. Harvey Cox: Religious Hierarchy {S} - it's lasted 2000 years, why would it go away in the next 35?
    
13. Shintaro Ishihara: Japanese Passivity {R} - reading the article, this is entirely plausible, but depends a lot on what happens politically in the region, that part is much harder to forsee.
    
14. Christopher Hitchens: The Euro - did we care when it was created? will we care if it goes away?
    
15. Fernando Henrique Cardoso: Political Parties {S} - nope, that's how our government works
    
16. Lee Kuan Yew: Laissez-Faire Procreation {S} - doubt it, there will always be those of us that are irresponsible.